Who is Who Mireia Aixala

The play that is likely to be right most of the time is not always the correct play. When you have a choice of plays, you also have to decide how bad it will be if you make a mistake. Thou shalt not bet each-way in big fields unless thou art well satisfied as to the value of the place bet.

Here is an obvious example. If your opponent bets on the end and you think the chances are better than 50-50 that that opponent has the best hand, the correct play most of the time is to fold and save a bet. However, it costs you not just one bet but the whole pot when folding turns out to be a mistake — that is, when you fold the best hand.

Therefore, you would call, even though the chances are that you are making a mistake. Because you expect your opponent to fold his mediocre hands if you bet on fourth street, and you want to win at least one more bet from those hands, the correct play 60 percent of the time is to check. It is correct to bet only 40 percent of the time. You usually pick the play that is likely to be right most of the time.