Who is Who Oriol Broggi
The general principle operating here is the following: When one alternative will have slightly bad consequences if it’s wrong and another second alternative will have terrible consequences if it’s wrong, you may be right to choose the first alternative even when the second is slightly favored to be the correct play.
Everyone folds except one player, who fires back with a gigantic reraise. Thou shalt not bet ante-post except upon horses that are known to be definite runners. You know that this player will make such a play not only with two aces and two kings but also with ace, king.
Assuming you have nothing other than Bayes’ Theorem available to put your opponent on one of these three hands, the odds work out to be 4- to-3 in favor of your opponent’s having ace, king rather than a pair of aces or a pair of kings. Thus, 4/7 of the time your pair of queens is the favorite, and 3/7 of the time it is the underdog. However, when your opponent does have ace, king, your queens are only a 13-to-10 favorite since there are five cards to come, any one of which could give your opponent either a pair of kings or a pair of aces.